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TLT

20yr Treasury ETF (iShares)etf
$84.130.13% today

TLT · 90-day price history

Prediction models

All predictions →

Trend follower

Horizon: 1 week

down
Confidence0.49

Accuracy data accumulates as predictions are evaluated over time.

How this works

Compares a 10-day vs 50-day moving average. When the short-term average rises above the long-term average, the trend is up.

Not financial advice. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

Momentum

Horizon: 1 week

up
Confidence0.13

Accuracy data accumulates as predictions are evaluated over time.

How this works

Uses RSI (a gauge of recent buying/selling intensity) and 5-day rate-of-change to judge whether the stock has been pushed too far in one direction.

Not financial advice. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

Statistical trend

Horizon: 1 month

flat
Confidence0.01

Accuracy data accumulates as predictions are evaluated over time.

How this works

Fits a trend line through the last 60 days of prices and measures how far the current price has strayed from it.

Not financial advice. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

Bull / Bear thesis

AI analysis
Bull case

Treasury bonds up 0.59% as flight-to-safety flows accelerate

Price action up +0.59%

Price action

Bond yields attract investors after recent weakness

Fixed Income Outlook Q3 2026 showing improved prospects for bond investors

SeekingAlpha

Tech and market weakness drives demand for safe Treasury holdings

Market correction and recession risks drive investors to government bonds

Price action
Bear case

Fed may hike if inflation stays elevated

With inflation still well above 2 percent and little evidence of substantial labor market weakness, both factors point toward rate increases

SeekingAlpha

Bond market warned of generational losses in Treasury ETFs

Why 'Safe' US Treasury ETFs Suffered a 'Perfect Storm for Generational Losses'

Benzinga

Higher rates would reduce bond values further

Rates Spark: Hike Temptation - We don't call for a hike, but can see how it could happen

SeekingAlpha

AI-generated from recent news and price action. Not financial advice. Educational only.

Recent news

The Fed Is Expected To Hold Rates - The Rules Say It Shouldn't

SeekingAlpha · Jul 28

Inflation concerns create debate over whether Fed should have already raised rates, impacting 20-year Treasury values.

Fixed Income Outlook Q3 2026

SeekingAlpha · Jul 28

Q3 outlook for bonds shows improving risk-reward after recent weakness in fixed income.

Rates Spark: Hike Temptation

SeekingAlpha · Jul 28

Possibility of rate hike despite expectations creates uncertainty for Treasury bond prices.

Higher Oil, AI Spending And Tariffs Test Markets

SeekingAlpha · Jul 28

Multiple macro risks including tariffs and spending create demand for safe Treasury holdings.

Exclusive: Why 'Safe' US Treasury ETFs Suffered a 'Perfect Storm for Generational Losses'—And Where Experts Say to Hide Now

Benzinga · Jul 27

Recent bond losses signal volatility ahead for Treasury ETFs despite safe-haven flows currently.

AI research companion

AI Research Companion

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